Is Spain About to Overtake France in Wine Production? It Depends Who You Ask

Imagine three countries entering a wine competition. Italy arrives carrying the most bottles. France walks in wearing a designer suit, looking very expensive. Spain turns up with a harvest estimate that suddenly puts it ahead of France. The Spain vs France wine production race is the headline of the week, so naturally I went looking at the numbers.

Then somebody asks the question nobody thought to clarify. Are we competing to make the most wine, sell the most wine, or make the most money? Those are three very different contests, and the answers don’t match.

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Quick Facts

• European Commission estimates from October 2026 put Italy first at 41.1 million hectolitres, Spain second at 37.6 million and France third at 33.9 million
• Spain’s own wine cooperatives forecast only about 34 million hectolitres, and France’s agriculture ministry raised its forecast to 34.9 million on 7 October, so the second place is too close to call
• In 2025, France exported the least wine of the three but earned the most from it: €11.2 billion, against €7.8 billion for Italy and €3.0 billion for Spain
• France’s average export price was about €8.90 a litre, against about €3.70 for Italy and €1.50 for Spain
• Italy shipped about 68% more wine than France in 2025 and earned roughly 30% less, which is the number I can’t stop thinking about

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Spain vs France Wine Production: What the Numbers Say

The Commission’s provisional estimates cover wine and must, and here’s how they look next to each country’s own forecast:

Country	EC estimate, 2026	Change from 2025	National forecast
Italy	41.1 million hl	-7.22%	n/a
Spain	37.6 million hl	+13.4%	about 34 million hl
France	33.9 million hl	n/a	34.9 million hl

A hectolitre is 100 litres, so we’re talking about oceans of wine. But look at the last column. Spain’s cooperatives, Cooperativas Agro-alimentarias, expect about 34 million hectolitres of wine and must. They describe it as a fourth harvest in a row below 37 million, with heat waves shrinking the grapes.

France’s ministry, meanwhile, bumped its number up to 34.9 million, which is still about 2% below 2025 and 14% below the five-year average. Those aren’t perfectly comparable figures, and I couldn’t find an explanation for the gap between the Commission’s number for Spain and Spain’s own. So I wouldn’t bet money on who finishes second. If you want to claim Spain overtook France this year, you’re picking the number that suits the story.

Why Bigger Isn’t Winning

Even if Spain does edge ahead, producing more wine only tells us about quantity. It doesn’t tell us how good the wine tastes, how much customers will pay, or whether wineries make a profit. Spain’s 13.4% jump also needs context. A percentage always looks more dramatic when you start from a low number. If I sell five bottles one week and ten the next, I’ve doubled my sales, but I wouldn’t announce an international wine empire just yet.

The Number That Matters More

This is the table I actually find fascinating. The International Organisation of Vine and Wine (OIV) published these completed 2025 export figures:

Country	2025 export volume	2025 export value
France	12.5 million hl	€11.2 billion
Italy	21.0 million hl	€7.8 billion
Spain	19.6 million hl	€3.0 billion

Read that again. France exported far less wine than Italy or Spain and earned more than both of them. Divide value by volume and you get a rough average export price per litre. These are broad averages, not shelf prices or winery profits:

Country	Average export value per litre
France	about €8.90
Italy	about €3.70
Spain	about €1.50

France’s average is more than twice Italy’s and nearly six times Spain’s. Put plainly, Italy ships about 68% more wine than France and earns roughly 30% less for it. France sends fewer bottles and a much bigger invoice.

The usual explanation is brand power. Champagne, Bordeaux and Burgundy carry history and pricing power, and people pay for the place and the label, not just the grape juice. It’s an explanation, not something the OIV numbers prove on their own. Wine can be delicious and still have a marketing department.

Italy Makes Brilliant Wine and Charges Like It’s Embarrassed

Here’s where I stop being neutral. Italy leads Europe in production on the Commission’s numbers, and it out-exported both Spain and France by volume in 2025, at 21.0 million hectolitres. Yet it earned €3.4 billion less than France from that wine. That doesn’t happen because Italian wine is worse. It happens because Italy sells too much of it too cheaply.

I think Italy undersells itself, and it drives me a little mad. This is the country of Barolo, Brunello, Amarone and a Soave that deserves far more respect than a supermarket shelf gives it. Yet our average export price sits at about €3.70 a litre while France collects nearly €9. French producers sell a story along with the bottle. Italy too often sells the bottle and hopes the story follows.

To be fair, Italy also sells everything from an everyday red to a serious Barolo that costs more than your dinner, and that range is a real strength. Not every bottle should cost a fortune. But making millions of bottles is only half a victory. The other half is selling them at prices that reward the people who grew the grapes.

Could a Bigger Harvest Become a Problem?

A bigger harvest isn’t always good news. If demand is strong, more wine means more to sell. If customers aren’t buying, extra wine piles up and pushes on prices and storage. And they aren’t buying like they used to: the OIV estimates that world consumption fell about 2.7% in 2025, to roughly 208 million hectolitres.

I looked at what that means for your wallet in We’re Drinking Less Wine. So Why Is Wine Getting More Expensive? And I explored the stranger split across the continent in Europe Has Too Much Wine. So Why Is France Running Out? The short version is that making more wine only becomes an advantage when someone will buy it at a sustainable price.

What Should Wine Lovers Take Away?

Don’t confuse the biggest producer with the best one, and don’t assume expensive means better. France’s export values show its commercial power, but they don’t prove that a €15 French bottle beats a €15 Italian or Spanish one. And don’t overlook Spain. Try a Rioja Reserva, a Garnacha from Aragón, a Godello from Galicia, or find out why people get so excited about Priorat. Just don’t tell your favourite Italian wine I suggested it. We have a relationship to maintain.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Is Spain overtaking France in wine production in 2026? On the European Commission’s provisional estimates, Spain (37.6 million hectolitres) is ahead of France (33.9 million). But Spain’s cooperatives forecast about 34 million, and France’s ministry now says 34.9 million, so it’s too close to call.

Which country produces the most wine in Europe? Italy, with an estimated 41.1 million hectolitres of wine and must in 2026.

Does France earn more from wine exports than Italy and Spain? Yes. OIV figures for 2025 show about €11.2 billion for France, €7.8 billion for Italy and €3.0 billion for Spain.

Does producing more wine mean better wine? No. Production measures quantity, not quality.

Is Spanish wine cheaper than French wine? On average export value per litre, yes. But both countries make wines at every price.

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One Last Thing

Nobody sits down at a restaurant and says, “Please bring me a glass from whichever country produced the most hectolitres this year.” At least, I hope nobody does. I’d be worried about that dinner conversation.

So if Italy, France and Spain each put a bottle in front of you, which are you choosing first? And are you choosing it for the country, the wine or the label? Whatever you pick, Italy, please start charging what your wine is worth.

— Kelly 🍷

#ItalianWine #SpanishWine #FrenchWine #WineProduction

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Continue Reading

• Europe Has Too Much Wine. So Why Is France Running Out?
• We’re Drinking Less Wine. So Why Is Wine Getting More Expensive?

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Sources

• Vinetur: Italy’s 2026 wine production projected to fall 7.22% to 41.1 million hectolitres (European Commission estimates)
• Agronews Castilla y León: Spain’s 2026 harvest forecast of 34 million hectolitres (in Spanish) (Cooperativas Agro-alimentarias)
• Vinetur: France raises its 2026 wine harvest forecast to 34.9 million hectolitres
• Investing.com: France’s 2026 wine harvest seen down 2% on heat, shrinking vineyards (Agreste figures)
• OIV: State of the World Wine Sector in 2025